Wait and see is now official policy on both sides, so Colonel Mark Cancian of CSIS referees the standoff.
Near term, the pressure on Washington from allies and oil markets gives Tehran the upper hand.
But if the war fades into background noise, the squeeze flips it, because Iran's hardship roughly doubles with every year the blockade holds.
The arsenal ledger cuts both ways too.
America has burned through roughly half its key munitions, yet as he puts it, "we still have half left," enough to resume striking for quite a while if Trump chose, over the Joint Chiefs chairman's objections about Pacific risk.
The other front shows what waiting too long costs.
He reads reports that Russia halted its premier hypersonic missile line simply because Ukraine ran out of Patriots, and cheap ballistic missiles now get through anyway.
That's what an emptied rack buys your enemy.
His middle option: a convoy operation to force the strait open, protective bubble and all, at a fraction of an air campaign's cost.
And his certainty: both of these wars end at a negotiating table, with Iran's likely stretching into 2027 after Tehran rejected splitting the strait.
Patience is a strategy only if your racks refill faster than your rival's resolve.
@MarkCancian @WeTheBrandon
