Trump says the ceasefire is over, but also says negotiations are ongoing. I sat down with former State Department Iran negotiator Alan Eyre to sort out the contradiction.
Alan says this isn't as complicated as it looks. Iran started restricting the Omani shipping corridor to keep more control over strait traffic. The US struck back to reopen it.
That's the whole cycle. He calls it a "doom loop": military attacks, half-hearted negotiations, then escalation again, repeating indefinitely.
Here's the part that surprised me. Alan thinks the US caves on Hormuz. He puts it above 50% odds. His reasoning: Trump has already said out loud he doesn't care if Iran controls the strait, then reversed himself days later.
He also makes the point everyone's skipping: Hormuz leverage has an expiration date. The US, Iraq, and Syria are already reviving a Kirkuk-to-Baniyas pipeline specifically to route oil around the strait.
Alan's read: Iran knows this leverage is temporary, which is exactly why they're squeezing it now instead of waiting.
So does the US actually fold on Hormuz to save the nuclear deal, or is Eyre wrong that Washington will accept losing this specific fight?
@AlanEyre1
