Trump insists Iran is desperate to negotiate, but Tehran says there are no direct talks, Pakistan says they aren't happening, and even U.S officials deny any direct negotiations are taking place.
So what's actually happening?
Fmr. CIA analyst Larry Johnson says we're watching the same cycle repeat over and over again.
Trump threatens overwhelming military action, Iran refuses to concede, the world braces for war, then Trump steps back.
Days later, the threats begin all over again.
The problem is that Iran has now learned the pattern, and it no longer assumes every ultimatum will end in military action.
Instead, Tehran prepares for the worst, waits, and watches Washington blink.
Larry believes that's because the U.S has run into a reality it cannot bomb away: The Strait of Hormuz.
Trump says America controls it, but Larry says that's simply not true.
The U.S can launch airstrikes, move ships, and threaten, but it cannot reopen the Strait on its own terms while Iran still retains the ability to strike shipping and energy infrastructure.
Which means the military solution Trump keeps hinting at doesn't actually exist.
That's why Larry believes Iran's leverage keeps growing.
Every day the disruption continues, oil, LNG and other critical exports remain constrained, pressure builds across the global economy, and Washington faces mounting costs from a conflict it still cannot decisively resolve.
And if that continues...
The question may no longer be what concessions Iran is willing to make.
It may be what concessions America can no longer avoid.
@NewSonof
