Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait.
According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump.
And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option.
Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time.
America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer.
That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast.
The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage.
If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger:
The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II.
For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open.
Brandon believes those days are over.
Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example.
@WeTheBrandon
