Iran has taken enormous punishment.
Its economy is reeling, inflation is brutal, and its military has absorbed repeated strikes.
But six months into the war, the regime is still standing, and crucially, Iran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz.
Middle East scholar Joshua Landis believes that has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation.
Washington has moved from military force to its new “Economic D-Day,” but the regional cooperation needed to make that strategy truly devastating isn't materialising.
Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Qatar still have powerful incentives to trade with Iran. Oman is negotiating with Tehran. Pakistan and Qatar are talking to the Iranians.
These countries don't want another regional war or a permanently closed Persian Gulf, and Iran knows it.
Joshua says Tehran increasingly believes America has already played its strongest cards, which makes surrender even less attractive.
Iranian leaders now believe that if they cave to Trump's demands, America and Israel will simply return once Iran has recovered and hit it again.
In Joshua's words, Iran fears becoming another Gaza, Lebanon or Syria; periodically attacked to keep it permanently weak.
So Tehran has reached the opposite conclusion: It has to make resisting Iran more painful than living with it.
Tehran may finally have learned the difference between America having the power to hurt it, and having the power to make it surrender.
@joshua_landis @WeTheBrandon
