Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Trump believed he could inflict enough military pressure to force Iran back to the negotiating table, then declare victory and end the conflict whenever it became politically convenient.
Instead, rather than giving him an easy off-ramp, Iran is trying to make the war so costly that he never thinks of doing it again.
That's why Trita believes the economic pressure matters just as much as the missiles, because every additional cost increases the political pain of continuing the conflict.
At the heart of the war is the Strait of Hormuz, and Trita argues this isn't really about shipping fees; it's about leverage.
Iran believes control of the Strait is its single biggest deterrent against a full-scale American attack. Give that up, and Washington can launch another war with far fewer consequences.
That's why he says Tehran is extremely unlikely to compromise on the issue, regardless of the military pressure.
His warning is that this creates a dangerous cycle, because every failed attempt to force a breakthrough creates pressure for another escalation.
Trita says that's how wars stop being short campaigns and start becoming open-ended conflicts.
He puts the chances of the fighting escalating over the next month at more than 80%.
Not because either side necessarily wants a forever war, but because both sides now believe backing down today makes an even bigger war tomorrow more likely.
@tparsi
