Brandon Weichert says if that's the official explanation, the real numbers are worse than what's being admitted.
His bigger worry isn't the munitions math on its own, it's what happens if Iran and Ukraine stop being two separate fronts.
Ukraine has already struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian, and Iran has floated retaliating against Ukraine directly, sitting well within range of its missiles.
Weichert says analysts he trusts have argued for over a year that these wars are functionally merging, and a strike either direction turns NATO from a bystander into a participant.
He doesn't think this ends the fighting either. His read is that the current pause is prep, not withdrawal, buying time to stage aircraft and munitions for one more major push before Trump looks for an exit.
If depleted interceptors already force the US to pick which threats to stop, what happens the day a second front opens at once?
@WeTheBrandon
