His read on oil is the opposite of the panic version.
The price collapsed not just because supply is normalizing but because demand may be quietly cratering, with inflation expectations falling even harder than crude.
If that's the real story, a one-off strike won't move much.
He'd expect only a couple of dollars on Monday unless this becomes a full restart or Iran actually moves to close the strait.
The China puzzle he treats as either a grand bargain or grand economics, never a conspiracy, just reality.
Beijing waited for $60 oil to refill reserves last year, almost as if it saw this coming, and may simply be holding out for $50 now.
His sharpest line landed on the manufacturing-via-weak-dollar theory a guest pitched me: a flat no.
Washington doesn't control the dollar's value, it's a euro-dollar system run by global banks, and a weaker dollar wouldn't reshore a single job when the labor-cost gap is this wide.
And his contrarian call: the UAE, written off mid-war, comes out far ahead, positioning itself as the region's dependable dollar gateway and a likely financier of Iran's rebuild.
@JeffSnider_EDU
