Larry Johnson joined as Tehran ticked past 2am with Trump's promised hard response still not arriving.
The whole exchange started with one drone hitting one rocket launcher on Larak Island, and the conversation tested every explanation.
Pressure? One launcher pressures nothing.
Bait? Washington can't afford the war it would bait.
The only reading left standing is that the launcher was about to seed the Omani lane with mines, and the choice of a drone over a jet was America's way of saying it wanted no round.
Iran answered with one anyway, reportedly dozens of missiles at Jordan and the fleet, plus a new rule: every American attack gets answered dozens of times over.
If thirty missiles came in, somewhere between 90 and 160 Patriots went up from a stockpile the discussion walked down to a few hundred.
Meanwhile the Navy's top admirals reportedly filed formal objections to extending the fight, calling prolonged operations unsustainable, and the Pakistani breakthrough promised for Friday is dead.
What to watch now sits on a Qatari runway.
Tankers have returned to Al Udeid, well inside Iran's range.
The day they move to Jordan is the day the next round is real.
@NewSonof
