Michael Oliver joined with a chart that breaks the story most people are telling.
The broad commodity index bottomed last October and has climbed roughly 30 percent since, and oil was a latecomer to that party.
Sugar, cotton, wheat, corn, soybeans and base metals were all rising for a full quarter before February 28, with no war to blame.
Corn sits at three-year highs this month while crude barely moved.
The conversation's explanation is bigger than any battlefield: money is leaving a breaking bond market and a wobbling stock market and landing in things that are real.
The 1970s did exactly this.
Stocks went nowhere for seven years while commodities and gold exploded, even as the Fed dragged rates from under 5 percent to 18.
Then there's silver's fifty-year prison.
Copper trades near seven times its 1980 price, gold five times, and silver only just cleared the ceiling it hit in 1980.
It broke out in November, sprinted to $120, fell back to the 50s, and by its ratio to gold it would have to double simply to reach where it stood in 2011.
The war, in this reading, is transient.
The shift underneath it is not, and it's headed into the things you can drop on your foot.
@WeTheBrandon @Oliver_MSA
