Aaron David Miller, a veteran U.S. Middle East negotiator and fmr. State Department adviser, joins me with one of the most sweeping assessments of where the region stands 6 months in:
The Gulf states, with the possible exception of Oman, are the BIGGEST losers of this war, unable to form any unified front...
They're caught between an Iran they cannot confront, and a U.S. that has proven it cannot protect them... watching the entire Dubai model of security, investment, and stability come under threat.
On the power vacuum: China and Russia will not fill it, the Arab world is too dysfunctional to step up, leaving only 3 non-Arab regional powers to contest the space: Turkey, Israel, and Iran.
On whether Iran resumes the war: Miller thinks escalation is likely if the blockade bites further, with Iran potentially striking Gulf energy infrastructure or cutting underwater cables to force Gulf states to pressure Washington into ending the conflict.
On Syria: Israel and Turkey came within ONE decision of a direct military confrontation when Israeli jets headed toward the Turkish border, with Amb. Barrack telling Miller the Turks were "one decision away from downing those jets."
The next few weeks, Miller says, are absolutely critical...
Thanks for coming on, @aarondmiller2
