Larry Johnson joined tonight, and the buildup north of Chernihiv led the conversation.
Russian forces and equipment have been moving into Belarus for a month, with its president heading to Russia for closed-door talks in days.
The assessment discussed was that Belarusian troops stay in reserve while the threat alone does the work, forcing Kyiv to pull defenders north to cover holes it doesn't have the men to fill.
What makes it possible is a rebuilt army.
The 2022 contract exodus was patched with 300,000 reservists, but recruits since have gone through full training rather than being handed a rifle and shoved forward, leaving Moscow with rested formations and options while Ukraine runs out of both.
And a Belarus axis points one direction: Kyiv.
@NewSonof @WeTheBrandon
