Pravin Sawhney thinks the biggest story isn't the explosions, troop movements, or Yemen. It's that Washington is already acting like the Iran MOU doesn't exist.
Trump signed an agreement calling for U.S. forces to pull back from Iran's doorstep. Days later CENTCOM gathered regional allies to build a new U.S.-led security umbrella around the Strait of Hormuz. Sawhney says those two positions can't both be true.
He also points to the permanent U.S. embassy agreement in Jerusalem as another sign Washington is doubling down on Israel's long-term regional strategy, not preparing to disengage.
His concern is that the direct Iran war has simply shifted into proxy conflicts. Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq are all heating up simultaneously while every side prepares for the next phase instead of the last one.
Saudi Arabia staying fully committed to BRICS is another signal he believes people are underestimating. In his view, Riyadh is increasingly betting on regional partnerships rather than relying solely on Washington's security umbrella.
On Trump, Sawhney argues the president is caught by the agreement he personally signed. Re-entering a direct war with Iran would be disastrous, but abandoning the MOU would destroy the image of being the president who ended the conflict.
His biggest takeaway: the danger isn't that the war resumes tomorrow. It's that every major player is quietly preparing as if it eventually will. Meanwhile, Iran is deepening ties with China, the U.S. is reinforcing its regional footprint, and the MOU is becoming harder to reconcile with events on the ground.
@PravinSawhney
