It could be the beginning of the end for the U.S. dollar.
His argument starts with an uncomfortable fact. Everyone is watching the Strait of Hormuz. Almost nobody is watching Japan.
Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, but its financial system is under enormous strain. Pilkington says Washington has already taken extraordinary steps to stop the crisis spreading, effectively creating an international version of quantitative easing to keep the dollar system stable.
He thinks that's the real story.
"The pressure is building."
Even if the missiles stop tomorrow, he argues the economic damage won't. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, energy markets remain distorted, and inflationary pressure is beginning to ripple through some of America's closest allies, starting with Japan and South Korea.
Then comes the prediction.
Pilkington believes the Iran crisis has accelerated a shift that was already underway: the gradual erosion of dollar dominance.
He points to growing discussion of a new Bretton Woods-style monetary system, the expansion of renminbi financing, and signs that financial institutions are beginning to prepare for a world where the dollar is no longer the unquestioned centre of global finance.
His warning is stark.
"If we sat down here and did this interview in 10 years' time... we'll be living in a different world."
For Pilkington, the Iran war is far from being just another Middle East conflict.
The event that may force the world to confront the slow collapse of the post-1945 financial order.
@philippilk
