Why would Iran put mobile rocket launchers on tiny Larak Island when they could fire from the mainland?
Malcolm Nance thinks that's the key to understanding the U.S. strike.
The Fajr-5 launchers reportedly targeted can deploy specialized sea mines by rocket.
And according to Nance, their roughly 130-kilometer range means positioning them on Larak could allow Iran to reach far beyond the immediate Strait of Hormuz, potentially mining approaches used by tankers along the UAE coast and even around Fujairah.
That matters because CENTCOM had just announced that mines had been cleared from the Strait.
Nance's theory is that Iran quietly moved the launchers onto Larak specifically to put them back.
And there's a nastier possibility.
He believes the U.S. may only have discovered the launchers after detecting them firing.
If so, destroying the launchers doesn't solve the problem.
The mines could already be in the water, submerged and waiting for ships to pass overhead.
Nance estimates there could potentially be anywhere from one to two dozen mines already deployed, depending on the launchers involved.
So the U.S. may have successfully destroyed two Iranian launchers.
The considerably less comforting question is whether they had already finished their job.
@MalcolmNance
