🇮🇷🇺🇸 Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, retired Air Force officer, joined me as CENTCOM confirmed the largest bombing wave since the ceasefire broke down.
She says the U.S. physically can't sustain an escalating war right now. It'll fizzle for lack of resupply, not lack of will, and then repeat in cycles for the rest of the Trump presidency while defense contractors profit either way.
"It escalates when we can't refill those tubes... it is going to de-escalate because the Navy's going to say, we need a break."
She sees the real danger sitting one rung up the ladder: a Marine unit or Navy ships pushed into the Strait's range of anti-ship missiles, a costly loss on the ground, and a president who's talked openly about nuclear weapons before, cornered into using one to avoid admitting defeat.
Iran, in her view, isn't negotiating to restore the old status quo. It's using the war to push U.S. bases out of the region for good, while telling Gulf neighbors to wean themselves off Washington entirely.
Congress controls whether the military gets refunded fast enough to keep this going. If the constraint really is logistics and not intent, does a pause in the fighting mean anything, or just reload time?
@karen4the6th
