His argument: Iran never changed its position. No concessions. No signs it was ready to fold. If Tehran didn't move, someone else did.
Aguilar points to what happened just days earlier. The Houthis shut down Bab el-Mandeb and struck Saudi oil facilities, turning Riyadh's strategy upside down. Pressure on Hormuz had been manageable. Losing Bab el-Mandeb too? That meant Saudi Arabia risked getting squeezed from both directions.
As Aguilar put it: "Two shit sandwiches on paper plates."
His theory is that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman picked up the phone and urged Trump to cool things down before Saudi found itself trapped in a two-front energy crisis.
The reported compromise is just as interesting. Ships entering would use Iran's corridor. Ships leaving would use Oman's. If that's the deal, Iran gains control over the gateway to its own trade, while Saudi gets an escape hatch from a crisis it couldn't afford.
Aguilar's takeaway: Trump needed a win. Saudi needed the war to stop. Iran never had to blink.
The real question is whether this arrangement survives the week.
