Iran's war with the U.S. may be changing another war thousands of miles away.
Jackson Hinkle says the lesson being absorbed in Russia is simple:
Maybe Moscow has been too cautious.
He argues Russians watched Iran hit U.S. military facilities, shut down Hormuz and absorb American retaliation without collapsing.
Then Russia began escalating its own campaign against Ukraine's ports, logistics networks and energy infrastructure.
Hinkle says the change in mood inside Russia has become particularly noticeable after the Iran war and Ukraine's recent 40-day campaign against Russian infrastructure.
Previously, the fear was that hitting Ukraine too hard could provoke an unpredictable Western response.
Now, he says, the attitude among many Russians he speaks with has shifted toward: “gloves off.”
Stop worrying about what the West might do and finish the job.
And the battlefield appears to be moving in that direction.
Hinkle points to sustained Russian strikes across Ukraine, growing pressure around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, and Putin's announcement of intensified attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure heading into winter.
For years, escalation theory assumed America's adversaries would look at U.S. power and become more cautious.
Hinkle's argument is that Iran may have produced the opposite lesson.
Russia watched Tehran escalate.
And instead of seeing a warning, it may have seen permission.
@WeTheBrandon @jacksonhinkle
