Pravin Sawhney, editor of FORCE magazine and one of the sharpest strategic minds covering this conflict, joins me with an assessment that reframes it all:
This war ended on April 8th, the day the U.S. air campaign concluded, having failed to achieve air dominance over Iran.
Everything since has been posturing, and Iran knows it.
Iran's strategy is now explicit: wait until 2029, get a deal with the next president, and hold Hormuz as leverage as the global economy bleeds...
The agreement signed in Mecca is not a NATO-style military alliance, it is a collective security framework designed to replace American security architecture in the region before America even officially leaves.
Qatar is signaling it may join, Iran has publicly welcomed it, and Sawhney believes Iran ITSELF could eventually become a part of this framework...
U.S. strategic petroleum reserves are at 1983 levels with roughly 43 days of supply remaining.
Interceptor stocks across THAAD, Patriots, SM-3 and SM-6 are critically low.
Trump's threats to strike Iranian energy facilities are, in Sawhney's words, "complete nonsense."
The region isn't waiting around for Washington to decide what comes next... it already has.
Thanks for the conversation, @PravinSawhney
