Larry Johnson kept circling back to that asymmetry, and it explains everything happening right now.
The reason a ship got hit in Hormuz today, the reason the rhetoric is hardening, the reason the strait turned into a tug-of-war between Iran and a suddenly cooperative Oman, all of it sits downstream of one fact.
Trump wanted this MOU. Iran didn't need it.
Why? Because the oil math is brutal.
An energy operator feeding Larry described the US position in language too blunt to quote in full, the gist being it's the worst he's seen in 35 years.
Refineries can make diesel or jet fuel from a barrel, not both at once.
Start bombing Iran again and military jet-fuel demand spikes on top of civilian need.
Larry's read: roughly TWO WEEKS before it breaks.
So when people ask whether Netanyahu talked Trump into keeping Israel in southern Lebanon, Larry doesn't buy it.
The moment Iran threatens the strait, Trump folds, because choking the oil ends him.
His other warning landed harder than the Iran talk: of the two theaters, Gulf or Ukraine, he'd bet the next real escalation comes in Ukraine, as the West gets pulled deeper into strikes inside Russia.
@NewSonof
