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Dec 12, 2025 8:00 PM

Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson spent years inside the CIA's analytical division.

He watched the agency help orchestrate the Panama invasion in 1988.

Now he's watching Trump's Venezuela buildup with a familiar feeling.

His verdict: it's either a bluff, or a disaster in the making.

Venezuela is three times the size of Vietnam with the same jungle terrain.

The US sent 543,000 troops to Vietnam and lost.

Today’s, the United States’ entire ground force is 470,000.

There are only 18,000 deployed around Venezuela.

Here's the tell that this Is unlikely to become a conventional war: Special Operations Command is leading, not Southern Command.

Delta Force and SEAL Team Six do raids and hostage rescues.

They don't fight conventional wars.

The real objective? Oil, and blocking Venezuela from joining BRICS.

On Ukraine, the body exchange ratio tells the story: for every dead Russian returned, Russia sends back 38 dead Ukrainians.

Russia's ground force has grown from 300,000 to 1.5 million since 2022.

Sanctions crushing Russia?

Russia's debt-to-GDP is 19%. America's is 127%.

One Russian economist told Johnson:

"We can build a wall around ourselves.

We don't need a single import from anybody."

We get into:

•⁠ ⁠Why Special Operations Command leading Venezuela signals this isn't a real invasion plan

•⁠ ⁠How the CIA built the Tren de Aragua narrative as an information operation starting in 2018

•⁠ ⁠Why Johnson says the real Venezuela agenda is oil and blocking BRICS expansion

•⁠ ⁠How Russia's ground force grew from 300,000 to 1.5 million since 2022

•⁠ ⁠What the 1:38 body exchange ratio reveals about actual casualties

•⁠ ⁠Why Europe "no longer really matters" according to Trump's national security strategy

•⁠ ⁠How the West's 1990s treatment of Russia created a population that won't break under sanctions

Washington is still running the 1991 playbook.

The rest of the world is playing a different game.

03:12 - CIA tried to provoke Noriega in the '80s—Trump using same Venezuela playbook?

05:43 - U.S. could face more body bags in Venezuela than Iraq and Afghanistan combined

06:58 - Invasion would ignite regional insurgency from Colombia and Brazil

08:13 - Trump’s 2018 CIA plan to remove Maduro laid the groundwork for Guaidó fiasco

10:48 - Venezuela isn't about drugs, it's about oil and countering Iran in case of war

13:02 - U.S. wants Maduro gone to block Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence in Latin America

15:03 - Fox News op-ed says Trump’s Venezuela strike is a warning shot to Putin

17:36 - Trump failed to push Russia out of Syria, now Iran, Russia, China closer than ever

20:30 - Trump’s “Red Sea victory” lasted 7 weeks, shipping lanes still shut

26:12 - Trump’s 2025 national security strategy signals major U.S. pivot away from Europe

29:39 - Europe “no longer matters,” US distancing from a decaying partner

35:05 - RAND wanted Ukraine to beat Russia to force it into alliance with the West

40:00 - Russia never planned to conquer Ukraine, wanted talks, West sabotaged it

46:50 - Ukraine is NATO’s proxy war, Russia advancing, but limiting civilian deaths

57:53 - Sanctions won't break Russia, oil only 15% of GDP, debt lowest in industrial world

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