Peter Boockvar came armed with the detail everyone missed on the Saudi Aramco earnings call.
The world has survived six months of blockade by draining strategic and commercial reserves everywhere, and Aramco's message was that the Band-Aids are used up.
His math gets darker from there, because a full reopening at the old 100-plus ships a day still means roughly 18 months of extra demand just to rebuild inventories, before every burned country starts stockpiling bigger so this never happens to them again.
That's why he expects the move above $100 to come fast when it comes.
As for who cries mercy first, he thinks Iran's president already did, and the military simply isn't listening to him.
Washington's problem is the opposite, since any reopening deal carries fees nobody will pay, and control of the water remains cheaper for the other side:
"one drone can be in charge of the strait"
The war will end eventually. The shortage already has an 18-month tail.
@WeTheBrandon @pboockvar
