CENTCOM confirmed it mid-interview: two U.S. service members killed in Jordan, one missing, four medevaced. Trump's own stated red line, crossed on the record.
Professor Marandi's answer was that the number is higher than that and it doesn't matter anyway. American lives aren't holy to Iranians, he said, and Trump's red lines mean nothing in Tehran.
The targeting map made more sense once he laid out the logic. Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan getting pummeled because that's where the American assets sit.
Saudi got hit because Saudi airspace and airbases are in use. The UAE stays quiet because of months of quiet diplomacy and, likely, money. Same read Alan gave me. Two very different people arriving at the same answer about the Emirates.
On the ground offensive he was more careful than I expected. He called it mental and said it would fail, and two former senior U.S. officers he spoke to agreed the summer humidity makes it a bad idea.
But Iranian military officials read the bombing pattern as shaping for exactly that. So: crazy, unlikely, still possible.
@s_m_marandi
