Two sources say Iran targeted the King Fahd Causeway overnight, with emergency crews reportedly heading to the bridge; no damage assessment yet, so treat it as unconfirmed.
At the same time, Qatar took what one account called its heaviest bombardment of the entire war, with impacts across Doha from 3:30am, only the second time Qatar has been hit since the MOU.
Stefano Ritondale reads the causeway report as "an eye for an eye." Washington dropped bridges around Bandar Abbas, so Tehran reached for the one bridge that keeps Bahrain connected: its single land artery, the same causeway Saudi forces crossed in 2011 to put down Bahrain's uprising.
His read of the message underneath: touch Iranian energy infrastructure and the same mirror waits there.
On the bigger fear, he put a number on it.
A ground operation sits around 1 IN 10 for him right now.
What he watches for: strikes shifting onto Iran's regular army, which he says just began in Khuzestan and Baluchistan after months aimed only at the IRGC, and bridge cutting around Bandar Abbas to isolate the port.
Both are happening; the tempo, in his view, stays far too low to call anything imminent.
If it ever comes, his bet is Qeshm Island, Marines first, and not without Emirati help.
One more pattern worth sitting with: the strike list keeps growing, and the two countries still untouched are the two any landing would need.
@artoriastech
