Maleki, senior fellow at FDD and former Treasury official, laid out why the current pause could be all of the theories at once:
CENTCOM shifting focus to Yemen, an exhausted target list inside Iran, and real Omani-brokered talks running in parallel.
His sharper point was about the region shifting underneath the war itself. Gulf states have quietly moved closer to Israel's camp, not out of ideology, but because Iran targeted the UAE harder than it targeted Israel.
Kuwait has reportedly conducted its own airstrikes against Iranian targets, something Maleki called unprecedented for a Gulf state.
"This regime has been preparing for a war with the West for 47 years of its existence. They've done nothing but getting ready for this war."
His actual forecast isn't victory or defeat. It's a cycle: escalation, pause, escalation again, for as long as this regime exists, because a 4-year presidential term isn't enough time to force a strategic outcome on a government that's had the same leadership and goals for over 2 decades.
If Washington keeps changing strategy every election cycle while Tehran doesn't change at all, who's actually the one playing the long game here?
@miadmaleki
