According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war.
Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective.
Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping.
The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California.
Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites.
It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans.
Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships.
That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January.
And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything.
If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations?
Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy.
His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price.
@ProfessorPape
