Larry Johnson walked through what the emerging arrangement actually requires, and it reads like a customs office nobody voted for.
Ship name, captain, country of origin, cargo in and out, crew identities, all registered with the Revolutionary Guard before passage gets granted, and no warship of any nation gets through at all.
Even if the deal Pakistan is celebrating comes together, with sanctions and blockade lifted in exchange for an open strait, Larry doesn't see Tehran giving up that gantlet, and an Omani official flies to Tehran tomorrow to keep building it.
Could Washington just break it by force? He ran the arithmetic.
The carrier group can't spare its two or three escort destroyers, the Marines add a few hulls, and every ship you actually seize needs another warship to escort it to port, so stopping four vessels guts the whole operation:
"We have the most expensive navy in the world"
The deeper shift is on land, because Congress now faces a choice about Al Udeid, Bahrain and Kuwait, billions to rebuild bases the war just proved can't be protected.
Larry expects the money never comes, which means Iran's opening war aim, pushing America out of the Gulf, is being accomplished quietly by accountants rather than missiles.
@NewSonof @WeTheBrandon
