Every time Trump pulls back from striking Iran, markets breathe a sigh of relief and headlines declare tensions are easing.
Prof. Robert Pape says that's the wrong conclusion.
His view is that the U.S. is trapped between two options it doesn't want. Either accept Iran's growing leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, or escalate into a conflict with no clear endgame.
Neither is politically attractive. So Washington hesitates.
Pape argues the real risk is a slow grind of escalation, where rising oil prices, retaliation, economic pressure, and domestic politics gradually leave Trump with fewer and fewer alternatives.
His broader warning is even more significant: this is more than just a crisis over Iran. It's a sign that the post-1991 unipolar era is fading, while Iran continues expanding its regional influence.
His takeaway is simple: don't confuse hesitation with peace. Sometimes paralysis is just conflict waiting for its next trigger.
@ProfessorPape
