Most analysts are watching the missiles, the ships, the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil.
Prof. Pape thinks they're looking at the symptom instead of the disease.
He says the real story isn't what Iran is doing, it's what the war has done to the Iranian people, and Khamenei's funeral is a psychological turning point.
Prof. Pape studies how societies respond to war, and he says events like this transform millions of individual emotions into one collective feeling.
A population that was traumatized becomes a nation convinced it has to fight back.
Then he compared today's Iran to America after 9/11: three thousand Americans were killed, and the country didn't calm down.
It became more determined, more united, and ultimately more willing to support wars that many would later regret.
Why do we assume Iran will react differently?
Because while that anger is building inside Iran, its leverage is growing too.
It still controls the Strait of Hormuz, and every week that passes brings Iran closer to what Prof. Pape calls its moment of maximum coercive leverage.
That's why he thinks August matters far more than today's headline.
Not because another ship might be hit, but because that's when emotion and leverage could collide.
@ProfessorPape
