The first condition in the 14-point MOU is that both sides stop threatening each other. Then Trump publicly warned Iranian negotiators they might not even make it home
If the parties can't get past point 1, there's no reason to discuss points 2 through 14
92% of Israelis reportedly believe Iran won the war. Aguilar says Americans see tactical victories. Israelis are looking at the end result: sanctions relief, frozen funds released, pressure on Israel to leave Lebanon, and the Strait of Hormuz still sitting over global markets
On Lebanon, he doesn't expect a full Israeli withdrawal anytime soon, but he thinks Trump forced Netanyahu into at least considering one
His theory is that Trump didn't ask nicely. He either offered something Netanyahu wanted or threatened something Netanyahu fears
The question hanging over everything: can this deal survive long enough to become reality, or does one more provocation send everyone back to their corners?
