For a week, Iranian officials have said startling things.
The people are hungry. This can't go on forever.
Cable news celebrated every word as proof the sanctions are finally working.
Colonel Daniel Davis, who fought tanks in Desert Storm, hears something else entirely.
Governments preparing to endure say hold on. Governments preparing to act start explaining why waiting is no longer an option:
"the time is going to come when Iran is going to make the next strike"
Modest, he predicts. Deliberate. And built on cold math.
Here's the trap. If Iran hits first and America roars back at full intensity, every strike burns missiles and interceptors that are nearly gone and years from replacement.
Iran keeps shooting from underground cities. America drains the Pacific to keep up. The weaker side wins by making the stronger side spend.
The timelines don't even match.
Washington thinks in weeks. Tehran is planning in years, and its goal is simple: make sure America loses badly enough that the bases never come back.
Then Daniel shared something from his own phone calls. A South Korean diplomat in Washington told him that, for the first time ever, officials in Seoul are quietly asking whether hosting American forces is still worth it.
They watched what happened to the last countries that said yes.
@DanielLDavis1
