Stefano Ritondale spent his Army intel career wargaming exactly this fight, and his read cuts through the noise of the last 48 hours.
The ship attacks began, he believes, because Tehran watched vessels drift to the southern route with transponders off and realized it was losing its grip on the strait.
So it set out to make the northern passage the preferred one: coordinate with Iran, sail safe.
And because that corridor threads Iranian territorial waters between two Iranian islands, tolls and pilot fees there wouldn't even violate maritime law.
Day 60 arrives, and the tollbooth is legitimate.
The retaliation fits the same logic.
Drones on the same near-abandoned bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, ballistic launches held to a trickle.
His explanation: the production lines are wrecked, Iran can't rebuild missiles the way Russia does, so every launcher spared is leverage kept.
His tripwires for real escalation: Prince Sultan in Saudi, Al Dhafra in the UAE, or a tanker sunk on the Omani route. All untouched so far.
The watch item is Netanyahu landing at the White House to argue the MOU failed.
If that pitch sticks, he warns, regime change returns to the menu, and no air campaign has ever delivered one.
@artoriastech
