Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert says that for weeks, Iran had gained the upper hand.
America's long-range missile stockpiles were running low, its Gulf posture had become more vulnerable, regional states wanted the fighting to stop, and Tehran had the leverage.
Now, Brandon thinks Iran may be pushing that leverage too far.
During the interview, reports emerged that Iranian lawmakers were preparing legislation that would reportedly:
- Ban U.S and Israeli vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- Block cargo linked to Israel.
- Demand compensation from countries that supported the war.
- And impose penalties of up to 20% of the cargo value on violators.
At the same time, reports suggested Iran was seeking transit fees of between 5% and 7% of each cargo's value.
If those numbers hold, Brandon believes the entire diplomatic process could collapse.
Not because Iran lacks leverage, but because it may be asking for more than the world is prepared to accept.
His concern isn't Washington, it's everyone else.
Countries that quietly shifted toward Iran after the war may begin asking whether Tehran is now overplaying its hand.
And if that happens, Trump gets exactly what he needs.
A political justification to walk away from negotiations, argue that Iran was never serious about peace, and escalate the war.
Brandon believes that changes everything.
Because the fastest way to lose a winning position is convincing your opponent they have nothing left to lose.
@WeTheBrandon
