Former State Department Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller gave me his thoughts on where the U.S.-Iran deal actually lands. His answer: nowhere clean, and probably nowhere for a very long time.
Miller lays out 3 paths forward. Full-scale strikes resume after the midterms if talks collapse. A real deal where Iran dilutes its enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief.
Or (and this is where he puts his money) permanent no-war-no-peace.
Limited flare-ups around the strait and Lebanon, sanctions staying partly in place, nothing resolved and nothing exploding. The Middle East's oldest failure mode, wearing a new name.
In Hormuz, he doesn't expect a return to the pre-war status quo at all. His model is Suez and Panama. Both charge tolls, both survive fine. Iran charges roughly $2 million per large crude carrier. A hundred-plus ships a day.
Miller floated what that adds up to: tens of billions in annual revenue Iran just discovered it can generate. That might matter more to Tehran long-term than staying a nuclear pariah state.
When Khamenei died, he says, Iran lost not just a leader, but the one figure capable of balancing clerical authority against military and security factions for over 3 decades.
Whether Mojtaba grows into that, Miller says he genuinely doesn't know. Even his father took years.
Is this a genuine strategic transaction Iran learns to live inside, or just the region's oldest failure mode wearing a new name?
@aarondmiller2
