The only scenario that works is a genuine strategic bargain with the U.S. and Iran, serious nuclear restrictions with real verification in exchange for billions in sanctions relief and open oil markets, and he doesn't know if either side is capable of making that deal
If they can't, scenario 2 is the slow collapse, ships pay Iran's tolls, episodic strikes continue, Hezbollah stays, the Lebanon framework never gets implemented, and the whole thing just deflates
Scenario 3 is the one nobody wants, a mass casualty event forces escalation and the war restarts
On the Lebanon framework he was more diplomatic than Daniel Levy but said the same thing, the word withdrawal is not in the MOU and not in the Lebanon deal, it's redeployment, and that was chosen very deliberately
His 2 things to watch over the next months: does Trump impose actual costs on Israel beyond rhetoric, and does he campaign for Netanyahu or against him
He's never seen the foundations of the US-Israel relationship under greater stress, shared values, common interests, bipartisan support, all cracking at once
Enjoy my conversation with @aarondmiller2
