Prof. Glenn Diesen, political scientist and one of the sharpest analysts on great power conflict, joined me as U.S. strikes on Iran were actively ongoing.
He thinks the U.S. has been quietly carving off pieces of the MOU, pushing ships through without transponders, establishing its own corridor. Each step is deliberate.
"When you just do these small steps, everything the opponent will do to resist will look like an overreaction. This is by design."
Iran won't let the U.S. return to the pre-war status quo, the same dynamic he sees with Russia in Ukraine.
There's no going back. That's why BOTH conflicts keep climbing the escalation ladder.
Every weapon consumed in the Iran war was earmarked for a future conflict with China. Russia and China both know this. The degradation of U.S. military capacity in the Middle East is a strategic gift... to both.
Will Iran blink? Glenn doesn't think so. The hardliners who said the MOU would never be honored have already been proven right.
And next time, they'll have far more influence.
Always great having @GlennDiesen on.
