For years, we've been told Iran is an existential threat. Every war, every sanctions package, every military operation has revolved around Tehran.
Macgregor thinks that's yesterday's story.
His argument is that while the world has been fixated on Iran, Turkey has quietly become the most powerful state in the Middle East, and unlike Iran, it has the economy, the military, the industrial base, the geography, and the long-term ambition to reshape the entire region.
He says Ankara isn't thinking about the next six months, it's thinking about the next fifty years.
That completely changes the way he views Trump's latest moves.
The talk of F-35s, the approval of hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of jet engines, and the sudden warmth toward Erdogan.
Macgregor thinks none of this is about rewarding Turkey. It's Washington recognising that Ankara has quietly become too powerful to ignore.
He believes Erdogan will happily listen to Trump's compliments, then he'll do whatever serves Turkey's best interests.
Because Turkey isn't interested in becoming America's proxy, it's interested in becoming the dominant power in the Middle East.
Macgregor argues that's exactly why Israeli ministers have started openly talking about Turkey as the next existential threat.
Because for the first time in decades, they are starting to realise that Iran may not be the country that defines the next chapter of the Middle East, but Turkey might.
If he's right, we're not watching the end of one conflict.
We're watching the birth of an entirely new Middle East.
@DougAMacgregor
