Beijing says it will not comply, and is threatening retaliation if Washington targets Chinese companies for continuing to trade with Tehran.
That's a HUGE problem for Trump's strategy.
Operation Economic Outcast is supposed to sever the international financial lifelines keeping Tehran alive. But Iran cannot be economically isolated if major trading partners simply refuse to participate.
Washington can sanction Iran, but the real test has always been whether it is prepared to sanction the powerful countries that keep doing business with it.
China has now effectively dared Trump to try.
Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have announced a preliminary agreement over managing the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran would control incoming maritime traffic and retain the right to impose service fees, while outbound traffic would use the Omani corridor.
Crucially, Tehran says the agreement does not mean Hormuz is immediately reopening.
Iran says the Strait will remain closed until the U.S naval blockade is lifted and the terms of the broader MOU are honoured.
And there are signs Washington may already be moving in that direction.
According to an Al Arabiya report, Pakistan's Asim Munir conveyed an American proposal to Tehran: Washington is prepared to lift the naval blockade and sanctions if Iran guarantees free passage through Hormuz and pressures the Houthis to stop attacking Saudi energy infrastructure.
There is another important signal.
The State Department is reportedly preparing to return diplomats to a string of Middle Eastern embassies evacuated during the war, suggesting Washington does not currently expect large-scale fighting to resume.
Put all of this together, and Trump's strategy starts looking very different from the rhetoric; the direction of travel today may actually be toward a deal.
@WeTheBrandon
