The oil market is being manipulated to hide a CRISIS that's already here, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hit critical levels BEFORE the midterms...
Economist Philip Pilkington returns with his most alarming assessment yet:
If Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the Gulf pipelines are all disrupted simultaneously, that is roughly 20-22% of world oil supply offline...
His comparison for what that looks like? COVID.
"You'd have to shut down about a fifth of global economic activity, fuel rationing, QR codes for diesel, military doing school runs, it's the same as the lockdowns without the masks."
China just ended its 60-day oil purchasing pause and is moving back toward 12 million barrels a day, which he believes was always the deadline after which Beijing would return to the market regardless of any deal.
The crack spread on diesel is already significantly higher than the diesel price itself, meaning the actual cost of fuel delivery is far above what futures markets show.
Whoever is suppressing the paper oil price is prolonging the war by giving Trump a false picture of the energy situation.
On negotiations: "It's become completely controversial now to even talk about diplomacy in Iran, and I think the Americans have pretty much reached the point where they may actually not be able to negotiate."
On where this ends: "My underlying assumption is anything that can be hit will eventually be hit, we might be waiting for Godot here, not TACO."
"We're definitely in the retarded simulation now, for sure."
Philip, we might be, but at least we have you to explain it
@philippilk
