🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The markets celebrated the moment Hormuz reopened toll-free, but the agreement behind that headline may be far weaker than anyone wants to admit...
The MOU that supposedly ended the standoff was reportedly signed without Israel or the Gulf states agreeing to the terms, which leaves one question hanging over everything: if Israel strikes Hezbollah the morning after signing, what stops Iran from shutting the strait all over again?
Maersk has already refused to change a single shipping route because of it.
Then comes the bombshell:
The roughly $300 billion in war reparations now being floated may be expected from the Gulf states themselves, the same countries that were bystanders and still got hammered, with Qatar's LNG facilities permanently damaged and three quarters of its economy tied to energy.
That is where my guest, former Goldman Sachs commodities chief Jeffrey Currie, makes his sharpest point.
He argues the entire post-war bargain, oil priced in dollars and protected by the US Navy, has quietly broken, and that the world is sliding from strategic alliances into purely transactional ones.
He contrasts it with 1991, when American power left the world in awe, and calls this moment the exact inverse, a superpower visibly stepping back while a multipolar order takes its place.
He also breaks down why oil is trading below where it sat the day the war began, why capital is pouring into tech and the SpaceX IPO, and why he believes markets have stopped telling the truth.
Full conversation below.
@CommodMkt
