For weeks, we were told the Strait of Hormuz disruption wasn't really affecting global supply, and that the market had plenty of breathing room.
Philip says almost all of it was fiction.
His argument is that the real stress never disappeared; it was simply hidden in the parts of the market almost nobody was paying attention to: strategic petroleum reserves, Chinese refinery policy, Russian diesel restrictions, and physical oil versus paper oil.
Then everything started moving at once.
China lifted restrictions on its refiners, Russia tightened diesel exports, and oil prices jumped.
That wasn't a new crisis beginning; it was the old one finally breaking through.
Philip says the Trump administration became so focused on keeping oil prices low that it distorted the market instead of allowing it to adjust naturally.
Policymakers chose to give the market cheap energy today by borrowing stability from tomorrow, and now the bill is starting to arrive.
He also made a broader point that goes far beyond oil.
Markets can absorb bad news, but what they struggle with is pretending reality has changed when it hasn't.
Trump may think he bought the economy more time, but Philip thinks he simply delayed the reckoning.
And if he's right, the real energy crisis is still waiting around the corner.
@philippilk
