Michael Oliver watches a chart almost nobody else runs, the value of gold mining stocks measured against gold itself, and for decades the miners were worth about a quarter of an ounce.
Then 2015 crushed that ratio to 4 percent, where it sat in a tight little box for thirteen years.
This month the box broke open.
His evidence that it matters is what happened next, because Newmont and Wheaton, the blue chips of the sector, shot straight back to their highs like lightning, meaning the sellers were long gone and large asset managers have quietly started buying their way in.
Ask why now and he points at what he calls the nuclear event, a government bond crisis finally reaching public recognition.
Long-dated Treasuries dwarf the entire stock market, the Fed started buying in November and prices fell anyway, and various analysts are all saying this can't be papered over.
Oliver's twist is that they won't go bankrupt, they'll print, and on what that means for gold:
"That's like dumping fuel in the tank"
His forecast underneath it all is simpler and colder: the pillar everyone priced as permanent is being repriced, and the metal that needs no promises is where the exits lead.
@Oliver_MSA @WeTheBrandon
