His read: non-farm payrolls just went negative, prior months got revised down, and ADP came in at 44K vs expectations. History says when you get a run of weak jobs reports like this, you're already in a contraction. You just don't know it yet.
Layer oil on top. Not "oil is scary" in the abstract; oil acts like a tax.
If gas and utility costs eat more of people's paychecks, discretionary spending dies first, then jobs follow. He points to 2008: oil hit $140, CPI spiked, and that was the tipping point everyone missed until it wasn't.
Then there's the part nobody's watching: private credit.
George calls it subprime lending's sequel; same structure, different balance sheets, this time hidden in shadow banks instead of mortgages. Nobody knows how deep it goes.
And AI CapEx is now propping up the whole thing. Google and Meta are reportedly cash-flow negative once you factor in AI spend. Meaning literal money-printing machines are borrowing to keep up.
George's tell for when a bubble turns: companies start issuing more debt and equity to fund it. That's already happening.
If Iran forces oil back to $120+, and the jobs numbers keep sliding, the timeline for all this collapsing doesn't move in years anymore. It moves in months.
Thank you @GeorgeGammon for coming on the show
