Admiral Mark Montgomery ran military relations with both Israel and Turkey at EUCOM, and he spent the night pushing back on nearly every comfortable assumption in this war.
Start with the blockade this show has heard called leaky, fanciful, a fiction.
His audit: "the blockade is doing its job"
Fossil fuel exports down 90% by his count, and fuels were the plurality of Iran's economy.
The famous Pakistan land routes? Six-thousand-gallon tankers over the Khyber Pass cannot move a nation's oil exports.
The Omani-side seepage exists only because American strikes blinded Iranian radar around the strait, and that gets restruck when it regrows.
Now the UAE is signaling a financial squeeze, and he says roughly 80% of Iran's purchases and receipts clear through Emirati banks.
On Israel and Turkey he sees signal, not war: six to eight aim points, timed before any Turk arrived, engineered to kill nobody.
@MarkCMontgomery @WeTheBrandon
