That puzzle drove my whole conversation with energy analyst Rory Johnston.
Over 100 days into a Hormuz closure, he expected demand destruction so brutal it would take prices to levels we've never seen.
It never came. So where did the missing barrels go?
His answer: nearly everything broke right at once. Saudi and Emirati bypass pipelines ran flat out, 400 million barrels of strategic reserves were released, and then the real shock, Chinese crude imports collapsed by roughly 5 million barrels a day.
China alone quietly absorbed 400 to 500 million barrels of the blow, almost certainly by draining hidden underground reserves nobody can see by satellite.
But Rory's warning is that this calm is borrowed.
Every buffer, commercial stocks, strategic reserves, stranded tankers, has been drained at maximum pace.
Tankers are flowing out, but owners are too spooked to send empty ships back in, afraid the jaws clamp shut again.
And Iran is still throttling traffic on purpose.
They're watching the price, holding back just enough to keep their leverage.
@Rory_Johnston
