Europe's jet fuel cover just fell below a month, the lowest of any major market, and airlines in some pockets are already trimming schedules.
Jeff Snider watches the airlines as this war's canary, and the canary is coughing.
His map of the damage runs through the refinery, which is why crude at $82 undersells the problem.
Refineries starved of crude wind down slowly and restart slower, the profit for turning oil into fuel just hit record highs, US gasoline stocks sit at mid 2010s lows after America exported fuel to plug holes abroad, and China is importing 41% LESS crude than last June, cooling oil prices while starving the world of diesel and jet fuel.
The real energy shock is still ahead.
Turns out the forecast is grimmer for being calmer.
No 1929 rerun, since 2008 already cleaned out the banks.
Instead, the silent depression the world has lived in since 2008 finally gets its 1970s fuel lines, and a world "somewhat short of 1929 is not a good place to live in."
His clock is the hard part.
This cannot run five years; it ends, one way or another, by New Year.
And food prices join the story in the back half regardless.
