🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil is back near $95. Japanese bond yields are surging. U.S. 30-year yields are back around levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. And Philip Pilkington thinks we're watching the early stages of something much bigger. His argument is that the pressure has moved beyond individual geopolitical shocks and become structural. Treasury is trying to suppress long-term borrowing costs. The Fed is signalling tighter policy. Japan is struggling to defend the yen. Meanwhile, the Iran war is pushing energy prices higher and adding another inflationary shock. Pilkington says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is effectively trapped between the bond market and the Federal Reserve, while Trump's own policies are making the inflation problem harder to contain. And he thinks the usual tricks are running out. Bessent is now publicly pressuring Japan to raise rates and unwind the carry trade, which Pilkington calls an “admission of defeat” for Treasury's attempts to stabilize the situation itself. His warning is extreme: If current trends continue, he fears a serious financial crisis within 3 to 6 months, potentially the worst episode of financial instability the U.S. has faced since the Great Depression. And Washington is escalating against Iran right in the middle of it. Pilkington's concern isn't simply that the war could cause the crisis, but that the financial system may already be entering one, and the war is pouring oil on it. @philippilk
