Trita Parsi says he's arriving wounded, defensive, and having sold Trump a war that turned into disaster. But the real agenda isn't Iran. It's Lebanon. Parsi believes he'll push Trump to give the Israel-Lebanon agreement precedence over the MOU, decouple Lebanon from Iran's demands entirely, and quietly lay the groundwork for the MOU collapsing. If he succeeds, a Lebanese civil war becomes much more likely. On the notion that Trump will simply restart the war after the midterms: "If there is a military option, why isn't he just using it?" If it takes years, it's not a solution, it's just the rest of Trump's presidency being consumed by war. He called the Lebanese government's deal with Israel "absolutely bizarre," saying it essentially told Israel it could stay in Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, which the Lebanese army cannot do. His warning if the MOU fails: not a return to full war, but something potentially worse... lower intensity conflict spreading further geographically through proxies, with no decisive outcome in sight. I always learn a lot from my conversations with @tparsi, enjoy!
