Edward Dowd ran money at BlackRock and now models exactly this kind of shock, and his May call, $125 oil peaking then rolling over, played out in print.
The new worst case: Gulf energy infrastructure starts coming apart, oil runs toward $250 FAST, and his model puts inflation between 8 and 11 percent by early fall.
The mercy in the math: prices that high destroy demand so quickly they cannot hold, and the spike itself tips the world into recession.
Which means Sunday night is the thing to watch.
Markets have learned this war's rhythm, escalation talk on weekends, then a headline about Iran wanting a deal before futures open.
The first weekend that pattern breaks, this becomes a different market.
The home fuse is credit.
The AI buildout leaned on private credit for its financing, and that market has gone cold, withdrawals frozen and early bankruptcies landing.
Credit ends every party; stocks find out last.
His compass has one needle:
"Watch the price of oil and it'll tell you how the war is going."
The baseline stays a painful but ordinary recession, on one condition.
Oil under $100. But it is climbing.
@DowdEdward
