I sat down with Chris Martenson to make sense of a situation that is becoming increasingly difficult to understand through individual headlines.
We started with oil. Despite attacks on shipping, disruptions across multiple regions and the growing importance of the Strait of Hormuz, oil markets have remained surprisingly calm.
Chris argues that the futures market may be increasingly disconnected from the physical reality of the energy system, and that the real crisis could come when that gap finally closes.
From there, we get into the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, how quickly it is being depleted, what the realistic floor looks like, and what happens when countries around the world eventually have to rebuild their reserves at the same time.
We also explore Iran’s growing leverage, why Tehran may simply be playing for time, and how control of Hormuz changes the negotiating equation.
But the conversation goes much further than Iran.
We talk about China’s manufacturing advantage, the vulnerabilities created by decades of globalization, and why rebuilding industrial capacity in the U.S. is far more complicated than simply bringing factories home.
We get into drones and the changing nature of warfare, the growing strain on U.S. military capacity, Treasury markets, Japan’s yen and the enormous carry trade sitting underneath global finance.
And eventually, it all comes back to the same question:
Are these separate crises, or are we watching different parts of the same system begin to break?
Chris has some fascinating and uncomfortable answers.
Great for having you on @chrismartenson
